When Alibaba was listed in 2014, it broke records and dominated trading desks for months. When Saudi Aramco was listed in 2019, it redefined what “large” meant in equity markets. Both felt historic at the time. On June 12, 2026, SpaceX makes both look like warm-up acts. This is not hype. This is not merely big. This is MEGA, and the numbers are no longer up for debate.
This analysis was produced by Eric Chia, financial market analyst at Exness.
Scale commands attention
SpaceX is targeting roughly US$75 billion (2.6 trillion baht) in fundraising at a fixed IPO price of US$135 per share, implying a peak valuation of around US$1.75 trillion. Saudi Aramco’s US$29.4 billion raise in 2019 held the previous record. SpaceX is raising more than twice that in a single offering.
The more striking detail is this: the IPO has reportedly attracted more than US$150 billion in investor orders, double the amount the company actually needs to raise. That level of oversubscription does not merely reflect enthusiasm. It signals an outright scramble for allocation.
That alone would make the SpaceX IPO a landmark capital markets event. But for traders, the story runs deeper than deal size. SpaceX combines a rare set of ingredients simultaneously: record fundraising, heavy retail investor participation, limited tradeable float, index inclusion potential, governance controversy, and a business model spanning space, broadband, defence, and artificial intelligence.
This is not just another large IPO. It is a deal large enough to reach institutional investors, retail brokers, passive funds, index committees, and momentum traders all at once.
One ticker, three fundamentally different businesses
Most IPOs are a single, self-contained business. SpaceX is three fundamentally different companies wearing the same jersey, and that complexity is exactly where the trading opportunity lies. Three business segments. Three entirely different valuation frameworks. Three entirely different risk profiles. The structural complexity alone guarantees analyst disagreement for months, possibly years. And disagreement drives volume.
- Starlink — the satellite internet business generated more than US$11 billion in revenue in 2025 with an operating margin of around 48%. Subscriber numbers reached 10.3 million in the first quarter of 2026, up 105% year on year. These are not start-up metrics dressed up for an investor presentation. This is a high-margin infrastructure business growing as though it has not yet found its ceiling.
- Falcon 9 / Starship — arguably the most reliable and cost-efficient orbital launch vehicles in history. SpaceX holds a near-monopoly in the commercial heavy-lift launch market with no competitor closing the gap in any meaningful way. The moat is deep, the order book is full, and pricing power is real. Starship is the wildcard: the most powerful rocket ever built is still burning through more than US$3 billion in annual R&D spend with no commercial payload revenue to show for it yet. It could rewrite the history of human civilisation. Right now, it is a cash furnace.
- xAI / AI integration — the variable that did not exist six months ago. A full stock-for-stock merger completed in February 2026 brought Musk’s private AI company into SpaceX at a combined valuation of US$1.25 trillion, adding a new layer of complexity and controversy to a company that was already difficult to value.
The retail wildcard
Up to 30% of IPO shares have been allocated to retail investors, roughly three times the industry standard of around 10%. This is a deliberate strategy, mirroring Tesla’s approach to building a mission-driven retail shareholder base. The effect on price behaviour is significant.
A retail-weighted allocation combined with massive media attention creates conditions for elevated post-listing volatility, exactly the kind of volatility traders and momentum players actively seek.
The governance controversy is already running
Before a single share trades, the SpaceX IPO has already generated enough controversy to keep financial journalists busy for the rest of the year. For traders, controversy is fuel.
Elon Musk will retain 84.4% voting control post-IPO despite holding around 42% of equity. His Class B shares carry 10 votes per share. He holds the positions of CEO, CTO, and board chair simultaneously — and can only be removed from those roles with his own consent.
Critics have begun characterising the xAI merger, which brought Musk’s private AI company into SpaceX at a US$1.25 trillion valuation in an all-stock deal, as potential self-dealing. This is not a footnote that gets skimmed over. This is the kind of controversy that keeps a stock in the news for multiple quarters or longer.
Why this is a trader’s event, not just an investor’s IPO
Most IPOs are investor events. Institutions receive their allocated shares, retail gets whatever is left, and the price drifts quietly until the first earnings report. SpaceX is structurally different.
The combination of record deal size, US$150 billion in demand, a 30% retail allocation, governance conflict, three complex business segments, and the world’s most divisive executive-chairman creates every condition for continuous, high-velocity price discovery. There is no comparable precedent. And where there is disagreement, there is typically volume, volatility, and opportunity.
Whether you are building a long position, looking for an entry to go short, or simply holding exposure to play the volatility, SpaceX will be the defining trading story of 2026.
The question is not whether SPCX will move hard. It will. The only question is whether you are ready when it does.
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