COTABATO CITY, BARMM, Philippines — The deepening rift between leadership factions of the erstwhile rebel group Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) is fueling communal violence that threatens the peaceful conduct of the first-ever parliamentary elections in the Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (BARMM).
The political exercise, scheduled for Sept. 14, marks a major milestone in the implementation of the Comprehensive Agreement on the Bangsamoro, the landmark peace deal signed by the MILF and the government in 2014 after 17 years of mostly Malaysia-facilitated negotiations.
International conflict-monitoring group Climate Conflict Action Asia (CCAA) has reported a spike in violence in the lead-up to the start of the campaign period for the BARMM parliamentary elections.
Liezl Bugtay, CCAA deputy executive director, said the group has recorded 229 incidents that resulted in 85 deaths since the filing of certificates of candidacy in May.
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From January to July 28 this year, the CCAA’s Critical Events Monitoring System (CEMS) recorded 611 violent incidents across the BARMM, claiming 235 lives.
Bugtay said that while violent incidents were more prevalent during the first quarter of the year, these were largely driven by attacks and retaliatory actions between government forces and violent extremist groups.
However, the CCAA observed that from May to July, violence involving local government officials increased as the election season gained momentum. Since the election gun ban took effect on July 16, the CEMS has recorded at least 24 incidents involving firearms and explosives or an average of about two incidents per day.
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Political rivalry
Bugtay said divisions within the MILF leadership have heightened tensions and violence within the organization’s ranks.
She noted that the split within the MILF leadership, which has increasingly manifested as a political rivalry between the MILF’s United Bangsamoro Justice Party (UBJP) and the Bangsamoro Federalist Party (BFP), became more pronounced in June after the MILF Central Committee suspended Abdulraof Macacua from his post as chief of the Bangsamoro Islamic Armed Forces (BIAF), the group’s military arm that is set to be decommissioned under the 2014 peace agreement.
In May, acting in his capacity as BARMM interim chief minister, Macacua removed MILF vice chair Mohagher Iqbal from his post as the region’s education minister.
Macacua’s suspension as BIAF chief was followed by the replacement of eight BIAF base commanders who had pledged allegiance to the BFP.
MILF chair Ahod “Al Haj Murad” Ebrahim, who was replaced by Macacua as BARMM chief minister last year, has maintained that the MILF recognizes only one political party—the UBJP.
With the historic BARMM parliamentary elections set for next month and the Barangay and Sangguniang Kabataan Elections scheduled on Nov. 2, the CCAA fears that violence could escalate further unless concrete security measures are put in place.
“The critical period is unfolding in the BARMM, with two democratic exercises set to take place within the same election season,” Bugtay said, noting the region’s history of violence-prone elections.
The CCAA also noted an increase in violent incidents involving local government and village officials, many of which stem from unresolved political rivalries dating back to the 2025 midterm elections.
Among the most alarming cases were incidents in the towns of Nabalawag and Kadayangan in the BARMM’s Special Geographic Area (SGA), involving the incumbent mayor of Nabalawag and MILF commanders.
“Rido,” or clan feuds, and territorial disputes among local officials and MILF members have erupted in several SGA communities, forcing thousands of civilians to flee to safer areas.
Bugtay said the CCAA has also observed the emergence of new armed groups and the continued presence of extremist threats in the Maguindanao provinces, particularly the so-called “Panenekelan Group,” which the military has linked to Dawlah Islamiya (DI) and the Bangsamoro Islamic Freedom Fighters (BIFF).
The DI and BIFF have been blamed for a series of attacks and harassment incidents targeting military forces and civilian communities.
Given the volatile security situation, Bugtay said the CCAA has recommended stricter enforcement of the election gun ban, citing the “stalled decommissioning process and the continued presence of weapons in the hands of MILF members participating in the elections.”
The group urged the Commission on Elections to prepare for possible disruptions and other emergencies. /cb
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