Thailand recorded just 416,574 births in 2025, the lowest figure in 75 years, while deaths reached 559,684. As a result, the country’s population shrank for the fifth consecutive year. The gap between births and deaths is now more than 140,000 a year.
The numbers tell a stark story. Births have fallen below 500,000 for a second straight year, the lowest level since 1950. A decade ago, in 2015, Thailand recorded more than 736,000 births. If the current trend holds, 2026 could see births fall below 400,000 for the first time.
Thailand’s total population now stands at around 65.8 million. The country’s total fertility rate has dropped to roughly 1.0, lower than Japan’s 1.2. This places Thailand among ultra-low fertility nations alongside South Korea and Singapore. Additionally, a rate of 2.1 is needed to keep a population stable.
Dr Theerachai Boonyaleepan of the Department of Health said this is not a new problem but one that has been building for over four decades. It is now reaching a critical point. Thailand is no longer simply slowing its growth. Its population is contracting permanently, with direct consequences for the future workforce, the burden of elderly care, and the sustainability of the welfare system.
What makes the issue more complex is that young people still want children. Survey analysis under the theme “young people still want children but are trapped by economic and social barriers” suggests the problem is not desire but insecurity. High living costs, debt, a lack of accessible childcare and inflexible working hours all stand in the way. Cash handouts alone have proved insufficient. People place greater value on education quality, flexible working hours and family support systems.
Professor Wiraphan Prachuabmoh, dean of the College of Population Studies at Chulalongkorn University, argued that policy should focus on quality births rather than numbers, with the state helping working-age people who are ready to start families do so sooner. Economic incentives alone are not enough, she said. What is needed is social policy that allows work and child-rearing to coexist.
The government has elevated the issue to a national agenda. The Ministry of Public Health is preparing a draft national agenda on quality childbirth, targeting a total fertility rate of at least 1.0 by 2027. By 2042, the target is between 1.0 and 1.5. Measures include family-friendly workplaces, childcare support, fertility treatment access, and a campaign built around the first 1,000 days of a child’s life.
If the government takes no serious action, Thailand faces labour shortages, a heavier welfare burden on a shrinking working population, and long-term damage to its economic competitiveness. Meanwhile, some projections suggest the population could fall to around 40 million within 50 years.
The challenge now, demographers say, is not only the falling number of births but ensuring that society gives the smaller generation being born every chance to thrive.
Thailand’s birth rate drops 81% over 74 years, surpasses Japan
The story Thailand’s births just hit a 75-year low. The population has now shrunk five years running. as seen on Thaiger News.
