Vietnam GDP projections now put the country ahead of Thailand when economic size is adjusted for purchasing power and on course to overtake it in nominal terms by around the end of the decade.
But Thailand remains considerably richer per person, meaning overtaking it in economic size and catching it in prosperity are two very different milestones.
World Bank figures put Thailand’s economy at US$577 billion in 2025, compared with US$514.7 billion for Vietnam. Yet Vietnam expanded 8% that year, while Thailand grew 2.4%.
That difference in momentum is expected to continue in 2026. The International Monetary Fund forecasts Vietnam to grow 7.1% this year, compared with just 1.5% for Thailand, the weakest projection among major Southeast Asian economies.
Vietnam pulls ahead on economic size
The balance has already shifted when measured by purchasing power parity (PPP), which adjusts for differences in local prices. IMF projections put Vietnam’s PPP-based economy at US$2.025 trillion in 2026, making it Southeast Asia’s second largest behind Indonesia and placing it ahead of Thailand.
By 2031, the IMF expects the PPP difference between the two countries to exceed US$500 billion.
Bangkok Bank’s Bnomics research team has reached a similar conclusion on the broader trajectory. Citing IMF projections, it said Thailand could fall to fifth place among Southeast Asian economies by 2030 as both Vietnam and the Philippines move ahead.
Vietnam’s GDP rise does not, however, mean Vietnamese people have become wealthier than their Thai counterparts.
Thailand still richer per person
World Bank figures for 2025 put Thailand’s nominal GDP per person at US$8,056.60, around 59% higher than Vietnam’s US$5,066. When adjusted for purchasing power, Thailand remained ahead at US$26,250 per person compared with US$18,088.50 in Vietnam.
GDP per person is not a complete measure of household welfare or quality of life, but it illustrates why the rankings for total economic size and individual prosperity can move at very different speeds.
Vietnam nevertheless crossed another development milestone in July, when the World Bank upgraded it from lower-middle to upper-middle-income status after decades of rapid expansion following the Doi Moi economic reforms launched in 1986.
For its next target, Vietnam aims to reach high-income status by 2045, and the World Bank estimates that doing so would require average per-capita GDP growth of around 6% a year for the next two decades, alongside a move towards higher-value manufacturing and services, stronger skills, technology and innovation.
Governance becomes the harder test
How Vietnam governs that transition is likely to matter as much as how quickly its factories and exports expand.
Bangkok Bank’s Bnomics team argues that Vietnam has benefited from policy continuity under its one-party political system and the state-directed market model developed since Doi Moi.
Its analysis contrasts that continuity with repeated changes in direction in Thailand and slower progress on programmes including Thailand 4.0 and the Eastern Economic Corridor.
However, the World Bank has warned that the next stage of Vietnam’s development will require stronger institutions rather than growth alone. It has called for more predictable regulation, better public investment, a more capable and accountable civil service and conditions that allow private businesses to become stronger drivers of productivity.
Other analysts have pointed to a further complication. Do Khuong Manh Linh of Vietnam’s Ho Chi Minh National Academy of Politics wrote that the Communist Party’s long-running anti-corruption campaign has helped reinforce public trust but has also made some officials reluctant to approve major projects for fear of later scrutiny, contributing to bureaucratic delays.
Thailand faces its own slowdown
Thailand, meanwhile, faces structural pressures of its own. The IMF expects growth of only 1.5% this year, while the Bank of Thailand reported household debt equivalent to 86.7% of GDP at the end of 2025. Thailand’s economy grew just 1.9% year on year in the second quarter of 2026 as household consumption weakened.
Vietnam therefore looks increasingly likely to pass Thailand in overall economic size if current trends continue. Closing the much wider difference in income per person is another matter, and will depend on whether rapid expansion can be converted into higher productivity, stronger domestic businesses and sustained improvements in living standards.
For Thailand, its existing advantage in income per person remains substantial, but slower economic expansion means that the lead cannot be assumed to last indefinitely.
The story Vietnam GDP set to surpass Thailand in size by 2030 as seen on Thaiger News.
