Deputy President Paul Mashatile’s confident prediction that the ANC will “inevitably” win the 4 November local government elections was less a sober assessment than a rallying cry.
Addressing supporters at Old Peter Mokaba Stadium in Polokwane during Workers’ Day celebrations, Mashatile urged members to campaign with conviction, insisting that victory was assured.
Analyst warns of declining support
But political analysts say his optimism masks a harsher reality- the ANC’s support is dropping, coalitions are becoming the norm, and the party’s dominance of decades past is unlikely to return.
Political analyst Theo Neethling said, as expected from politicians, Mashatile set expectations high and presented the ANC’s prospects in an optimistic light.
“Nevertheless, current trends suggest the ANC is likely to perform even worse than in the recent national general election,” Neethling said.
“It is important to emphasise, however, that the ANC’s support remains unevenly distributed geographically.”
The party is likely to perform relatively better in rural areas, where historical loyalties and organisational networks remain more entrenched.
“In urban centres – and particularly in the major metros where voters tend to be more critical and demanding – it appears almost inevitable that the ANC will lose even more of its dominance, or majority, and be compelled to share power with other parties.”
Coalition politics expected to dominate outcomes
Neethling said there is a strong likelihood coalition politics would dominate the outcome of this year’s elections, with significant variation in performance across provinces and municipalities.
South Africa has already reached a point where coalitions have become a defining feature of national and local politics, and all indications are that this trend will continue, he said.
“In this context, a return to the ANC’s dominant position of two to three decades ago appears increasingly unlikely – if not simply wishful thinking,” he said.
Survey suggests ANC support could fall further
Political analyst Prof André Duvenhage said when looking at all the surveys undertaken and also taking a look at the political environmental analysis, it was absolutely clear that the ANC’s support was going down.
“And in some surveys, it’seven going below 30%, so I haveno doubt that we are in a phasewhere the ANC may lose support. I think of about 70 hung councils we had after 2021,” he said.
“This may probably double or at least increase largely when it comes to the 2026 election. So, I am not seeing any result in this regard that the ANC can increase.”
Duvenhage said the party in its current state may not win the elections, adding maybe it might do well in the rural areas, but not in the urban areas.
“So, I think Paul Mashatile is sitting across us, as he is missing out on the reality. I have no doubt that he is going to lose out on this process,” Duvenhage said.
“Limpopo, the rural areas of Limpopo, the rural areas of eastern KZN will go uMkhonto weSizwe [MK] party’s way and Inkatha Freedom Party’s way.
“I’m not seeing any strong support for ANC. So, my estimate is 13 to 35%.
“The ANC does not have a lot of time; it needs to do a huge run to change itself. There’s no chance of it reaching a 50% plus support on a national basis. That is not to say itcan’t win certain local structuresout of the 257, but definitely not asa majority support.”
Morale boosting versus electoral reality
Another analyst, John Molepo, said Mashatile is just trying to boost morale and confidence among the electorate and the volunteers.
“But the polls and many patterns have shown that the ANC is declining,” said Molepo.
“Look at how the majority of its members in Limpopo have now joined ActionSA, MK party and EFF.
“It tells you that the party might not get what it is used to.
“But in Limpopo, the ANC will still win, and we are going to see the new incoming political parties taking a few seats in councils. When looking at the metros, we are likely to see a coalition.”
However, he said if the ANC wants to do well, it might be careful about its candidates and address corruption because that was vital in local government elections.
