Global energy markets remain under sustained pressure as continued disruption in the Strait of Hormuz keeps one of the world’s most strategically important oil transit routes unstable, despite intermittent diplomatic efforts to ease tensions.
The strait, which normally carries around 20% of global oil and gas shipments, remains heavily constrained by ongoing military enforcement and geopolitical uncertainty following the collapse of negotiations between the United States and Iran.
While some commercial vessels continue to pass under tightly controlled conditions, shipping volumes remain sharply reduced, with many operators delaying, rerouting or reassessing Gulf exposure altogether.
‘Oil prices may climb into mid-to-late 2026’
According to Terence Hove, senior financial markets strategist at Exness, “The geopolitically driven oil supply crunch drives prices higher.
“The longer peace talks in Iran will remain on hold, the higher the pressure on global supply chains.
“Traditional knowledge about market cycles no longer applies.
“As locked-in barrels continue to exert upward pressure, oil and energy prices may continue to climb well into mid-to-late 2026,” Hove concluded.
Shipping disruption continues to inflate global costs
The prolonged instability has significantly increased pressure on global supply chains.
Major shipping operators are increasingly evaluating longer alternative routes around the Cape of Good Hope, bypassing Gulf waters at the cost of longer transit times, higher fuel consumption and elevated freight expenses.
War-risk insurance premiums for vessels operating near the Gulf have surged, while tanker charter rates continue climbing – all of which are feeding directly into higher global energy prices.
Analysts warn these structural logistics costs may remain elevated for months if tensions persist.
Oil prices remain volatile above key thresholds
Oil markets have responded with renewed volatility.
Brent crude recently climbed above $114 per barrel – its highest level in weeks – amid fears that prolonged disruption could deepen into a broader supply crisis.
Although some temporary diplomatic openings have occasionally cooled prices, markets remain highly sensitive to developments in the Gulf.
The World Bank now forecasts a 24% rise in global energy prices for 2026 due largely to the Middle East conflict and supply disruptions.
Energy analysts caution that limited spare production capacity among OPEC+ nations leaves global supply vulnerable to further shocks, while fears remain that any escalation could extend beyond shipping lanes to regional oil infrastructure itself.
South Africa extends fuel levy relief to shield consumers
For South Africa, the economic risks are mounting rapidly.
As a major fuel importer, South Africa remains highly exposed to rising crude prices, shipping costs and exchange rate volatility.
In response, government has extended its temporary fuel levy reduction measures beyond the initial May deadline in an effort to cushion consumers and businesses from escalating global prices.
Key relief measures now include:
- Petrol’s R3/litre fuel levy reduction extended through May
- Diesel levy relief increased to R3.93/litre for May, effectively reducing diesel’s general fuel levy to zero
- Partial levy relief to continue through June before phased withdrawal
- Full fuel levy rates scheduled to return from 1 July 2026
The combined relief package is estimated to cost government R17.2 billion in foregone revenue, funded through stronger-than-expected tax collection and spending undershoots.
Treasury says the move is aimed at containing inflation, protecting household incomes and reducing pressure on economic growth.
Broader economic consequences for households
Despite temporary tax relief, economists warn that South Africans remain vulnerable to:
- Higher petrol and diesel prices once levy support phases out
- Rising food inflation due to transport cost increases
- Increased business operating expenses
- Pressure on interest rates if inflation accelerates
- Greater strain on already stretched household budgets
The South African Reserve Bank has already flagged fuel inflation as a major risk factor for monetary policy this year.
Fuel pricing system under review
Meanwhile, the Department of Mineral and Petroleum Resources is reviewing South Africa’s fuel pricing formula, with a broader restructuring process underway that could influence long-term domestic fuel pricing mechanisms.
Fragile outlook ahead
While diplomatic channels remain technically open, global markets continue to price in significant uncertainty.
Even without a full closure of the Strait of Hormuz, partial disruption alone has been enough to keep oil prices elevated, freight markets unstable and inflation risks high.
For South Africa, the extension of fuel levy relief offers temporary breathing room – but unless global supply routes normalise soon, consumers and businesses are likely to face continued pressure well beyond the current relief window.
Latest forecast
Below, the latest projections for May 2026 as received by The South African website from the Central Energy Fund (CEF):
| FUEL | PRICE CHANGE |
| Petrol 93 | increase of 174 cents |
| Petrol 95 | increase of 205 cents |
| Diesel 0.05% | increase of 517 cents |
| Diesel 0.005% | increase of 518 cents |
| Illuminating Paraffin | increase of 439 cents |
If the market conditions were to remain consistent for the remainder of the month – an unlikely scenario with the rand/dollar exchange rate fluctuating and the oil price ever changing – an increase of 174 cents per litre is expected for petrol 93 octane motorists and an increase of 205 cents for 95 users is anticipated.
Meanwhile, diesel motorists would see something between a 517 and 518 cents per litre increase.
Finally, illuminating paraffin is expected to rise by 439 cents in price.
FUEL PRICE IN SOUTH AFRICA IMPACTED BY TWO MAIN FACTORS:
1. The international price of petroleum products, driven mainly by oil prices
2. The rand/dollar exchange rate used in the purchase of these products
Oil price
At the time of publishing the brent crude oil price is $114.74 a barrel.
Exchange rate
At the time of publishing the rand/dollar exchange rate is R16.60/$.
The final overall price changes for both petrol and diesel will be confirmed later in the month with the new prices taking effect at midnight on Tuesday, 5 May.
April 2026 petrol and diesel prices (Inland and Coastal):
| INLAND | April |
| Petrol 93 | R23.25 |
| Petrol 95 | R23.36 |
| Diesel 0.05% | R25.90 |
| Diesel 0.005% | R26.11 |
| Illuminating Paraffin | R24.21 |
| COASTAL | April |
| Petrol 93 | R22.46 |
| Petrol 95 | R22.53 |
| Diesel 0.05% | R25.07 |
| Diesel 0.005% | R25.35 |
| Illuminating Paraffin | R23.19 |
